Duel of the Fates

On a cool, crisp Monday evening in Oklahoma City back in December, my friends and I embarked from our hotel room onto the streets of OKC. It has become a yearly winter ritual with my closest friends, embarking on the 180-plus miles up Interstate 35, over the Red River and into Sooner country for Mavericks at Thunder. Our first trip was a success in 2009, as Dirk dropped 35 and 11 on 18 shots with Dallas dominating the second half and winning 100-86. That Oklahoma City team was still ripe, learning how to put the pieces of their talented roster together to become what would eventually be an 8th seeded team that pushed the defending champion Lakers to six games in the playoffs.

But on this December night in 2010, the stakes were different. Oklahoma City was now established, a 50-win season under its belt and Russell Westbrook taking to next step. Dallas was the old team looking revitalized after another April embarrassment, thanks to Tyson Chandler and a full-training camp's worth of Caron Butler. I won't lie, the OKC road trip isn't just for basketball. There is some serious bro bonding that would make a Sig Ep shed a single tear. We had drinks. We fit eight college seniors into a two-bed hotel room to save cash. I refrained from taking part in too much of my beloved Jack Daniels before we ventured to the arena. Don't get me wrong, I love having an adult beverage at a sporting event just as much as the next guy, but I needed a clear head. I needed to see if something deep in the bottom of my stomach were true.

I needed to know if the Dallas Mavericks were the best team in the NBA

***

The Thunder and Mavs are almost so much opposites that they're similar. Seriously. One fan base is spoiled with talented riches that are not only on average as old as a college senior, but also successful. Unless there are some big Shawn Kemp fans in Oklahoma City, these fans have had three seasons. Two 50 win seasons and one losing season. Dallas on the other hand, has had it's fair share of peaks and valleys, with each low and high point being the absolute ends of the spectrum. Teams with wins in the teens all the way to a Finals birth. One fan base is tortured to seemingly be forever cursed to never win it all for as long as the current roster stands. The other fan base is naively enjoying the best of all that can be enjoyed with basketball, not knowing anything but success and being thrilled to be apart of the ride and a long ride it looks to be. Truth is, if OKC bowed out in even four games in this WCF, I doubt the Thunder fans would actually be that upset. "Wait, we went to the Conference Finals after picking third in the draft two years ago?! YES!" Maverick fans however, would curse and rage until next season starts, an undeniable feeling of the proverbiale window finally snapping shut on the franchise's greatest player of all time.

The polar opposites continue to the actual teams in battle that do the same thing but in different ways. Both team's MVPs get their points primarily off jumpers and free throws. Except Kevin Durant is a face up nightmare, with a variety of dribble moves and curl downs off down screens to snap off that quick release and force defenders to only foul to stop him. Dirk Nowitzki on the other hand, has almost primarily gone to work with his back to the basket, using his footwork, head fakes and ball fakes to free up space, knock down that one-legged fading jumper or get fouled. Both teams rely on their point guards to keep the offense humming. Russell Westbrook does it by relentlessly attacking the basket with no fear or hesitation. Jason Kidd shies away from lay ups whenever possible, transitioning his basketball skills to  become a marksmen from three and able to turn Brandon Haywood and Tyson Chandler into double digit scorers with his passing.

Both have benches where the sixth man is often the key to each team's success. Both six men take the spot of a defensive two guard whose only job is to shut down the team's best perimeter scorer for about 10 minutes a game. 

Some will say the only difference in these teams will be experience and that's why the Mavericks will prevail. Experience is slightly overrated. Did experience lead the Grizzles over the No. 1 Spurs? Did experience lead the Warriors to stun the Mavericks? Did experience rush Dwight Howard and the Magic to the NBA Finals? Did experience allow Dwyane Wade to become Bennett Salvatore's favorite player? (I kid, I kid.)

The reason the Mavericks or the Thunder will win this series is the same reason every NBA team ever wins a playoff series -- match ups, match ups and match ups.

***

Already settled into my seat in the Oklahoma City Arena, I watched what many Maverick fans usually expect the Thunder to do to them every time: run circles around them. Durant scoffed at the notion he was being guarded by DeShawn Stevenson as he rained in jumpers over him. Serge Ibaka was swatting shots into the fifth row. Hell, even Jeff Green was taking advantage of Dirk's limited perimeter defense. 

Luckily, the Mavs had Dirk. Both teams swayed with runs back and forth. Dallas would make a push for a five point lead, the Thunder would push right back to be up four. Then, late in the second quarter, Dirk drilled a one-legged fade. Banked it off the glass after getting fouled on top of it from a bewildered Green. But something went wrong. Dirk's landed off that jumper over 1,000 times. Probably a million times by now. But this time, his knees buckled. His weight crashed down on his knees as he twisted in pain, falling to the floor. 

From our nose-bleed seats, we couldn't tell it was his knee at the time. We all assumed it was another sprained ankle and when Dirk gingerly got to the line to still make the free throw, it was also assumed that Dirk was fine. The game went to half tied at 56. Waiting in line to get myself a Bud Light (probably priced at $9) my friend Robert told me the news.

"Dad just texted me. Dirk out in second half with a sprained knee."

***

My biggest qualm with this series is how quickly some people are throwing out the regular season meetings between these two teams. Most notably, the defense the Mavericks have played on Russell Westbrook. I've read about 500 times in the last five days that "the Mavs have no answer to Russell Westbrook." Except they've had an answer. Every single time they've played against him, they've had an answer.

Westbrook is a career 37 percent shooter against Dallas. If you think that's hindered by his poor shooting rookie season, he's a 31.8 percent shooter this season. Jason Kidd might only be able to catch Russel Westbrook if 2002 Jason Kidd returned but 2011 Kidd is just as smart. Kidd goes under every ball screen and forces Westbrook to shoot a 15-20 foot jumper. The Mavericks can live with that. It also won't just be Kidd that forces the action on Westbrook. DeShawn Stevenson has been announced as starting on him with Marion likely getting some spot time as well. 

But probably the biggest underselling of this series is the impact of Tyson Chandler. While I doubt Chandler will replicate the his season averages of 12.7 points and 15.5 rebounds against the Thunder with no Green or Nenad Krstic on board, don't underestimate the power of a free roaming Chandler.

Think of it this way. Chandler's last three playoff opponents have been LaMarcus Aldridge, Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum. Now it'll be Serge Ibaka and Kendrick Perkins. No disrespect to those two fine players at all, but Chandler is now set loose. He is free to roam the paint and do what he is best at: help defense. Chandler's ability to meet Westbrook at the rim was a big reason why Westbrook shot so poorly against Dallas all season.

Those are really the keys. Everything else is pretty much settled. Dirk will go off. Durant will go off. Both Eric Maynor and James Harden and J.J. Barea and Jason Terry will have their moments. This series boils down to Chandler's ability to protect the rim without a low post scorer to check and the crunch time play of Westbrook and Jason Kidd. If the Mavericks fall back into their earlier turnover demons, this series could turn quickly for OKC. I put my faith into Kidd, he's done it so far.

***

Without Dirk, the third quarter looked bleak. The Mavericks offense had been diluted down to Marion post ups and Caron Butler jumpers. Durant was cooking and Kidd's three point shot was off. When the third quarter horn sounded, I slumped in my chair. The Mavs were only down two, but how long could they realistically hold on in OKC without Dirk?

The fourth quarter got underway with multiple missed shots for both teams. You could tell each team wanted to have that lockdown fourth quarter, the kind that leaves no doubt who the better team is. The Mavs zone enticed the Thunder to shoot from the outside. And they continued to miss. Jason Terry then remembered that quarter number four was the quarter he was allowed to make shots. JET and Butler continued to put in just enough points as the rest of the team blanketed the Thunder with their defense. As I danced in my aisle among some disgruntled OKC fans, I caught some things I would always remember -- Terry antagonizing the crowd and Butler slamming the ball at half court in celebration. These Mavs are different. No other Mavs team would come into this environment, against this team and win without Dirk, I thought to myself.

As I walked through the tunnel that went from the OKC Arena to our hotel, my friends were drunk with happy. Or drunk with drunk. Either way, the Maverick euphoria was all over. I walked quietly in the back. One thought was racing through my head:

The Dallas Mavericks are the best team in the NBA

Mavs in six.

***

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Adrian Wojnarowski Does Not Care for the Mavericks, Apparently

A word before I begin: Adrian Wojnarowski is, in my mind, the best national NBA beat writer out there. If there's ever a breaking news story, "Woj" is all over it. And nobody is better at breaking news during the trade deadline. I almost believe that when a trade is made, a G.M. does two things -- he calls the other team to accept the trade and then he calls Woj. He breaks everything. He is the Ken Rosenthal of the NBA. Another thing that makes him great is that despite being a beat writer he isn't afraid to express his voice when he dips into his column work. Beat writers are plagued by the fine line they have to dance around between writing truthful negative stories and keeping happy sources. Woj doesn't just dance well at this line -- he single handily does his own interpretation of the "Black Swan" at the line. For example, just Google "Adrian Wojnarowski LeBron James." The man has a mean streak.

Now that I've done the usual "respecting the guy thing," I can now freely shit on this man's chest, figuratively.

I kid, I kid. The last thing I want this blog's reputation to be is a biased, ranting Maverick homer blog (or do I?) But it strikes me from Woj's playoff predictions that he isn't the biggest Maverick fan. A rundown, Tarantino-style, from West Finals and back:

West Finals: OKC in five.

West Semis: LA in five

West Quarters: Portland in four

The OKC prediction doesn't bother me in the fact that I don't believe the Thunder can win, but the way in which Woj thinks they will. For the Thunder to win in five games, at minimum they have to win two of the three games played in Dallas, one being a Game 5 elimination game. Now, OKC is a fine road team but even they only took one of three in Memphis, which clearly looks to be a less talented team than Dallas. The Thunder can beat the Mavs for sure. But in five? Without homecourt? I'm not too sure.

The Lakers prediction is probably the most sane of the bunch. Hell, even I picked the Lakers to vanquish the Mavs in five. The regular season data suggested it. Eye test suggested it. The Lakers even showed signs of coming alive by dominating the Hornets to close out the series. What the Mavericks did was surprising and the Lakers seemingly willingness to fold even more shocking. So, free pass there.

But Portland in four? This is an embarrassingly bad prediction that I can't even fathom why he would do that. It can't be for shock factor because the NBA is not the NCAA -- upsets rarely happen. If they do, it's because of a particular match up for that series. It's hard to upset a team that's better than you over the course of a seven game series. Would Butler beat Pittsburgh four out of seven? What about George Mason and UConn? There isn't much glamor to calling an upset in the NBA because people don't invest in the betting, prediction process as much. If he gets it right, cool -- here's a pat on the back and a couple of retweets. Good job.

What's so remarkable about the predictions is the guy isn't some newspaper columnist that's tied to a local region. The man knows his hoops. Being a national writer, he might not be able to watch these teams as closely as we can, but come on, PORTLAND IN FOUR?! A casual NBA fan would even know that the teams were very closely matched and the Trail Blazers had a horrible road record. I understood every reason why people picked the Blazers over the Mavs, but there is in no way that evidence supported the Blazers taking four straight games. The first two in Dallas, no less.

I'm sorry to take up an entire post on something so trite and meaningless as playoff predictions (the NBA! It's UNPREDICTABLE!) but I felt I needed to get that off my chest.

Note: My Western Conference Finals preview will drop tomorrow. I'm taking a slightly different, more narrative approach this time. Hopefully that will make more sense to you all tomorrow. Want a small taste? I like the Mavs (for once)

***

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Being Wrong Never Felt so Good

Who had Mavericks in four? Oh, that's right -- nobody. Probably not even the higher powers of this universe could have predicted such a fate for the two-time defending champions.

But Dallas is moving onto the Western Finals for the first time since 2006 and the fourth time in franchise history. An incredible implosion from the Lakers all helped by an incredible team effort for the Mavs. Funny enough, in my series preview, I stated that the only way Dallas had a chance to win is if Gasol + Bynum fail to average 35 points per game and the Mavs were blazing behind the arc.

Well....

• Bynum and Gasol averaged 25 points per game for the series, with only two games even reaching the 30 point mark. The duo never reached a combined 35 points in a single game with the highest being 31 in Game 2.

• The Mavericks shot 46 percent from three, which is a great number in itself. But the Mavericks made 49-of-106 behind the arc. 49 three pointers in four games. An incredible number punctuated by the 20-of-32 display in the Game 4 beat down.

The most shocking part of the series to me was the ability of Tyson Chandler, Brandan Haywood and Dirk Nowitzki to handle Gasol and Bynum in the post. Gasol shot under 50 percent for the series and only attempted 18 shots total at the rim for all four games. This was obviously not the same Gasol we've seen over the last three years and while Dirk's defense was perhaps the best I've ever seen him when guarding a potent post threat, Gasol didn't do himself any favors by straying farther and farther away from the basket. 

I knew Haywood would be able to body Bynum because he as the size and weight to do so. Chandler was a different story and while Bynum had two sparkly games, the Lakers needed every game for Bynum to be a difference maker. Chandler was benefited by the referees allowing physical play and Chandler used that to body up Bynum and limit his catches in the paint. Chandler forced Bynum to make three or four dribbles on most of his post catches and that's a huge deal. Big men don't like dribbling. It's science. 

And how nice is it to have Jason Terry back? According to the greatness that is Rob Mahoney, Terry is having his highest PER in the playoffs since, well, ever. Terry has long been known for his post season disappearances since 2006 and what we're seeing now is what we've expected to see for the last five years. Terry's long-standing role on this team has always been to be the second scorer. In the past, that well was dried up and Dirk was forced into a one-man stand against an onslaught of playoff opponents. For right now, that is no longer the case. Dirk has help in the scoring department, as  both Jason Kidd and Peja Stojakovic have also had their moments. 

Speaking of Jason Kidd, the Devin Harris trade might have officially been decided win (and especially will so if the Mavs advance to the Finals.) There's no question the fact that in in each fourth quarter against LA, Dallas out-executed the champs in every way. The Mavs ran their offense to perfection to close out every tight game in the series and that has to go with Dirk's steadiness in not turning the ball over and the grasp in which Jason Kidd has on a team's offense. Kidd might not have put up the scoring numbers like the Portland series, but he didn't need to -- he just kept the Mavericks ship from not capsizing and played some credible crunch time defense against Kobe Bryant. 

And how can we not finish with Dirk? While I plan on describing his brillance in more detail later on, he was quite simply, the best player of the series. Outplaying Kobe both in scoring and making his teammates better, Dirk simply did what Dirk do (to steal a phrase from a certain baseball manager) and drain silly fades, drop daggers and find his teammates off of double teams. An exemplary performance and one that, honestly, isn't too surprising anymore. 

***

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Deuces, Los Angeles

The Dallas Mavericks have outclassed the two-time defending champions both on the basketball court and as competitors. A 4-0 sweep of the team I picked to best the Mavs in five games.

More to come (I promise this time) by the end of tonight and tomorrow morning. But for now, eat, drink and be merry -- your Dallas Mavericks are having their finest season since 2006 and just vanquished the one team that truly should intimidate you. Once again please use this as a forum to discuss a great moment for a great team.

***

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The Dallas Mavericks are 2-0

Despite the brillance of Dirk Nowitzki, Dirk has done this in the playoffs for the last four years. What he hasn't gotten is contributions from Jason Kidd, Jason Terry, J.J. Barea and the center position (Brandan Haywood and Tyson Chandler, take a bow.)

I've received about five to seven hours of sleep over the last two nights combined. So forgive me as I might just take some rest and post something up tonight or tomorrow. I'm beat.

In the meantime, use this as a forum for all the good-vibe thoughts (or not, I believe the most comments I've received was on my rage post after Arron Afflalo drilled that buzzer beater.)

I'll leave you with Dirk's best moment of Wednesday night. I've watched this video about 832 times.

Dallas Mavericks 96, Los Angeles 94: Our Power Forward is Better Than Yours

Last night, I failed myself and didn't even take my own advice. I scummed to history. Throughout the entire fourth quarter, I assumed Kobe would make the last shot of the game and the Mavericks would leave the court, shell-shocked from another Kobe dagger.

When Kobe rose up to take the game-winning three, I knew it was going down. As it bounced of the back iron I was stunned. The Dallas Mavericks went into Los Angeles, fell behind by 16 in the third quarter and won.

I've read a lot of rumblings from national outlets and sites stating how horrible the Lakers played and the Mavs winning by only two is a testament to the Lakers ability and talent. Now, there's no doubt the Lakers slept-walked from the opening tip until a couple of minutes remaining in the second quarter. But from there on? They were into it. Kobe had that look, Gasol and Bynum were sharing the ball and Odom was making plays.

I believe it's more fair to say that both teams didn't play their "A" games, except the final three minutes of the game, Dallas flat out executed. There were no Jason Terry hero shots. No Jason Kidd pull up threes. No wild Shawn Marion shot clock expiring attempts. Just pure executed offense, not reliant on Dirk, but running through him. There are plenty of things to improve on, but it's so much easier to swallow up 1-0 over the two time champs with three games to play in Dallas.

• I have literally run out of ways to describe Dirk Nowitziki and his continued brilliance as a basketball player. 28 points on 22 shots, 50 percent from the field, from three and perfect from the free throw line. If Dirk would have received a couple of friendly AAC-type calls on a couple of bumps he received on some of his jumpers, he would have been well over 30 points. Throw in 14 rebounds, three assists, one steal, one block and only one turnover. Add in a couple of crunch time buckets and scores and you have another typical great Dirk night. Keep it up, big German.

• A note on the 14 rebounds: there was some concern over Dirk's rebounding ability. It was a worthy concern, with his age climbing and his athletic ability in a downward trend. And of course, he turns it on another level in the playoffs. That's now three double doubles in seven playoff games with three other games of 7, 8 and 9 boards. 

• I mentioned in my playoff preview that the only way for the Lakers to stumble is if they beat themselves. It happened to a degree with Kobe shot hunting from the perimeter (no shot attempts at the rim) and Ron Artest going bonkers with a 1-for-8 shooting night. Kobe might have been incredible, but the more 29-jump-shots-no-assists-nights he puts up, the more I like the Mavericks chances.

• Since we're focusing on what I said right, let's go next to where I'll be wrong. Andrew Bynum was completely shut down by the duo of Tyson Chandler and Brandon Haywood. I'm not as surprised with Haywood's performance, since Haywood has always had this in him, with his great length and strength to match Bynum. Chandler is a different story. He worked, pushed, shoved and battled Bynum about as well I've ever seen. Granted, the refs allowed a lot of physical play and I caught at least three instances of Chandler having both hands on Bynum's back (a usual no-no). Also, with Bynum ineffective that put Odom and Gasol on the floor which heavily favors Dallas by allowing Chandler to work on Gasol. Gasol shot 5-for-10 but Chandler forced a few misses and made him pass out of the post a couple of times in the fourth. One more quick note: I noticed by my unofficial count that Bynum caught the ball in the post with both his feet out of the paint at least four to five times. As a post player myself (and a rather bad one at that) I can't tell you how much difference it makes to force a big man to put the ball on the floor a couple of more times then he wants to.

•  Bench points -- Dallas, 40. LA, 25. 'Nuff said.

• Actually, more said: Jason Terry saved Dallas in the first half (before he destroyed it in the last two seconds.) Dirk started hot, making his first three shots but had a real rough stretch during the second quarter. In that time, Terry carried the offense on his back, going perfect from the field in the first half, all on great shots. Terry popped off picks, shot off swing passes and had some beautiful pump-fake, escape dribble baskets. Terry cooled off in the second half a bit, but his offense was monumental when Dirk was momentarily human.

• For Corey Brewer to do what he did, without having played meaningful basketball in months, to step up in the biggest game of his NBA career...wow. The Mavs went on a 22-11 run when Brewer checked in after the Lakers built a 60-44 lead in the third, and his three pointer brought the game to 64-61. He played valiant defense (even though Kobe still drained a few jumpers in his face) and was more impressively offensively. He finished on the break, made a three (!) and had two, real nifty passes after driving baseline. Both resulted in Tyson Chandler points and really showcased that he has the room to grow into an all-around player, whenever that jumper becomes less wonky. Who thought we'd be seeing Brewer play, let alone taking a heat check three? (Even though it rimmed out.)

I'll stop here for now, but there are plenty of other things in this game to nitpick. Jason Kidd played a truly two-faced game (third = poop, fourth = better), J.J. Barea shows what he can contribute when he isn't being posted up on every play and Kobe was completely wide open on that last three. Game 2 is Wednesday and it might be the hardest game the Mavericks will ever play.

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Los Angeles Lakers vs Dallas Mavericks Playoff Preview: Goliath, Meet David

Worst part of the playoffs? History. It's an annoying tidbit of information to give depth to a particular match up, but far too often used as a crutch in analysis. For instance, some people picked the Trailer Blazers to beat the Mavericks not because of their match ups in the post and at the guard positions, but because Dallas has a bad history in the playoffs. It's lazy and we're hearing even more now with the Lakers and Mavs squaring off in Round 2:

Kobe scored 62 against the Mavs through three quarters in 2005 -- even though that years Mavs team went to the NBA Finals and Kobe's Lakers blew a 3-2 series lead to the Suns and took a seat after the first round. And only two players remain from that Mavs team.

LA has beaten Dallas in the last three playoff series -- even though the last series was back in 1988 when Roy Tarpley was supposed to be the 90s Dirk.

Forgoing history, Dallas and LA are actually surprisingly close. Lakers were seventh in offensive efficiency (107.9), Mavs were eighth (107.6). Lakers were sixth in defensive efficiency (101.3), Mavs were seventh (102.3). It's amazing how these two teams are so close, given their completely different styles.

As most know, the Lakers are at their best when Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol are allowed to freely operate in the paint. Kobe Bryant is still the headliner, but the two bigs LA throws down in the paint truly carry the Lakers not just offensively, but defensively as well. Without Bynum in the lineup, the Lakers are forced to tap into their only true source of bench production in Lamar Odom and feature a front line without a true rim protector. Gasol and Odom do their best to swat shots, but both are either bad to average post defenders. Bynum changes that, and gives the Lakers the most formidable front line in the NBA, Memphis Grizzles notwithstanding.

The Mavericks do it almost the other way, jump shooting their way to eventual better looks at the rim with all-around team production from key role guys. Funny enough, both teams are at their worst when its stars (Dirk, Kobe) are one-man-bands. The difference though, is that when Dirk takes over games, he's usually successful and draws ire from the media when he ISN'T carrying the Mavericks on his back. Kobe is brandished whenever he shoots around 25-30 shots, as whispers of ball hog float around the interwebs. Perhaps the difference comes from the fact that Kobe can control an entire possession, from bringing the ball up the court to initiating an offense while Dirk is at the bevy of his teammates' ability to give him the ball in the mid-post. Just an interesting aside.

Unfortunately, the regular season ultimately does not lie (I.E. 2011 Memphis Grizzles vs Spurs/Thunder, Mavs in 2007) and Dallas ultimately has no realistic shot of conquering the Lakers. In that final meeting in late March, the LA duo bulldozed Tyson Chandler as if he were Shawn Bradley and the Mavericks backcourt completely imploded. The only way for the Mavs to beat the Lakers is if the Lakers beat themselves by ignoring Gasol and Bynum and Kobe/Ron Artest/Derek Fisher hijack the offense. Too many things have to fall right in line for Dallas -- Dirk has to be brilliant, Chandler has to stay out of foul trouble and play even better defense than Round 1, Jason Terry and Jason Kidd have to continue Round 1 shooting and Shawn Marion has to check Kobe. For the Lakers? Feed the ball inside and limit the scoring of Jason Terry. That's about it. They don't have to necessarily stop Dirk because it's been documented with this team that you can beat the Mavs with Dirk going off close to 30. The key is (and always has been) secondary scoring.

This is why I unfortunately pick the Lakers to win in five games. I know that sounds overly harsh, but the only scenarios I can imagine the Mavericks winning is if Bynum/Gasol combo fail to score at least 35 points and Dallas blazing from behind the arc. The Mavs showed they can be physical in Round 1, but that was the Blazers and a Portland frontline that only had LaMarcus Aldridge to be feared (least you forget Dirk guarded Marcus Camby and his less that four points per game scoring average.)

What could swing the pendulum back toward the Mavs? Rodrique Beaubouis can be a secret weapon employed to attack Fisher, Steve Blake and  the Shannon Brown guard rotation. And here's my ultimate "throw it out there, take it or tell me I'm dumb" strategy: Dallas playing Dirk at the three (small forward) for small stretches in the game.

If the Lakers roll out their lineup of Fisher, Bryant, Artest, Gasol and Bynum the Mavericks could conceivably counter that with Kidd, Marion, Dirk, Chandler and Haywood. I'll let you pick the pieces of your head off the floor, but let me explain:

This would easily be the best defensive lineup for Dallas against LA's twin beats. Chandler on his own can't tangle with Bynum's strength but against Gasol? He has a better chance. Haywood's size and defensive skill set was practically made for Bynum's old school post game. Dirk could be hidden on defense by guarding Artest, since he's rarely a big piece during the Lakers offensive movement. We saw in Round 1 Dirk guard Gerald Wallace and Nicolas Batum for brief stretches without much damage done. With Artest's wonky three-point shot and his greatest strength (posting up) taken away, he provides less of a threat and allows Marion to fully commit to Kobe without having Jason Kidd or Jason Terry be forced to guard Artest and be bullied on the low block.

Of course, this lineup has severe offensive limitations. The only outside shooter around Dirk is Kidd, which would allow the Lakers to use Kidd's man to send the double and allow Marion, Chandler or Haywood to catch the ball out of their comfort zones. Perhaps Marion can exploit the doubling down on Dirk with some dive cuts and Chandler and Haywood could create pin downs for easy dunks, but that's hopeful thinking. I'm not saying this lineup would completely work, but I think it deserves a shot, especially when Dallas will likely need to change something from the norm because the norm isn't working against LA.

Some see the Hornets ability to take two from the Lakers as a sign of weakness from the champs. But you must remember that it took two, transcendent, unbelievable, brilliant, life-altering performances from Chris Paul and some surprising outside shooting from Trevor Ariza. When Paul was just a mere All-Star mortal the Lakers won and they won convincingly.

My heart is telling me I'm wrong, that Dallas will split the road and home sets, then take the next two to win the series in six games. But my logical, basketball brain cannot compute. I hope, pray, that I am wrong.

***

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