Once More, with Feeling?

I have a fond memory of Devin Harris. I remember when his lanky 6-3 frame came into the American Airlines Center for the first time. It was my last season being a season ticket holder for the Mavs, which was Harris' rookie season.

I specifically remember one play about halfway through his rookie season, against the revamped and Steve Nash led Suns. Harris stole the ball with the Mavs down three, late. He sprinted past a backpedaling Nash, leaped towards the rim and contorted his body as Joe Johnson smacked him to the ground. Harris splash landed a row or two into the baseline seats as the ball did a victory lap or two before rolling into the basket. And one. Tie game. Holy cow. I was sold.

Harris might not have been the prototypical passing point guard, but he was the only other paint presence that the Mavericks had from 2004-2008 besides Dirk Nowitzki. Harris averaged 4.2 shots at the rim per game from 2007 to 2008 (farthest Hoopdata goes back to tracking his time in Dallas) and I can take an educated guess that the number stayed the course before that to his rookie season. Harris was a slasher, score first point guard in the mold of Tony Parker. Except he was bigger than Parker - more athletic with an ability to defend elite guards. Who can forget Harris' insertion to the starting lineup in the epic 2006 playoff series against the San Antonio Spurs in Game 2? Harris scored 20 points, got the the free throw line nine times, and seemingly flipped the momentum switch back in the Mavericks favor, essentially neutralizing Tony Parker and helping Dallas win the series.

Harris fell out of the loop during the 2006 Finals (and we'll speak no more of that series, thank you.) After the embarrassing first-round flameout to the Warriors in 2007, the 2008 season started with a rather blah feeling. Well, at least to Mark Cuban. And when Cubes is feeling antsy, no one is safe. Harris was shipped away along with the Mavericks near-foreseeable future assets to bring in Jason Kidd. After a rough opening stint, Kidd has emerged as the Mavericks second-most important player, bringing up the games of everyone around him (including Tyson Chandler, Dirk, Jason Terry, Shawn Marion, etc.)

But now there are reports that the prodigal son might return. The fabulous reporting Mark Stein says that if Carmelo Athony heads to New Jersey, Harris could make it to Dallas. To get Harris from Denver (if the Melo trade even goes down) Dallas would almost assuredly use Caron Butler's expiring contract as Denver is desperate to get under the luxury tax. There are plenty of questions to consider: How would Harris (who requires to be the primary ball-handler to get to the rim and control his offense) mesh with Kidd in the same back court? During Harris' best year in New Jersey - 2009 - Harris had a 28.4 usage percentage. To put that in perspective, Dirk's career average of usage percentage is 27. So, for Harris to be at an "All-Star level" (and I use that term loosely), Harris has to be in control of the ball more so than Dirk. Remember, when Harris was first here, the team's primary point guard was Jason Terry, who we all know is much more effective the less time he's using the ball.

Another thing I wonder is what kind of Devin Harris would the team be getting? Since his All-Star season of 2009, Harris has been plagued by injuries and sputtered to averaging a little under 17 points last season and this season. His highest field goal percentage in New Jersey has been 43.8. He still hasn't learned a three point shot. He apparently doesn't make his teammates any better (although that's tough to do in New Jersey these days.) The one thing that makes Maverick fans sleep well at night is his free throw attempts. Harris has averaged a clean seven free throw attempts per game so far in New Jersey, including a career-best 8.8 attempts per game in 2008-2009. In that same season he also shot a smidge under six shots at the rim per game, a great number for a guard or anyone else that isn't Dwight Howard or Tim Duncan. Heed that stat, however - that number has decreased all the way to 3.8 - a seemingly average number that almost has to deal with his injury woes.

One last nugget about our former friend: his defensive rating hasn't been anything to write home about. Harris has always had the reputation for being a great individual defender, but it's a reputation that is thrown around loosely. Remember, Caron Butler was supposed to be a "rugged, tough" defender, and his defense has been barely average in his time in Dallas. I wanted to take into the account that Harris has played on some bloody awful defensive teams in New Jersey. So I compared his individual defensive rating to his overall team's defensive rating during his seasons in New Jersey and here's what I found:

Devin Harris Defensive Rating             New Jersey Nets Team Defensive Rating

         2008-2009: 111                                                  2008-2009: 111

         2009-2010: 112                                                  2009-2010: 110

         2010-2011: 110                                                 2010-2011: 108

Interesting. New Jersey's defense as a whole was worse when Devin Harris was on the court, not off it.

Now, this isn't to say Devin Harris would make Dallas a worse team if he was brought over (as long as Caron Butler and J.J. Barea were the only trade casualties and not Roddy Beaubois) , but to say that there are better options out there for the Mavericks if they decide they need to take an opportunity of a shrinking championship window.

(Advanced stats courtesy of Hoopdata.com)

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An Ode to Caron

Oh Caron. How we hardly knew ye.

Caron Butler has been a very maligned player in his short time with Dallas. In fact, I'm one of his biggest opponents. When the Mavericks acquired the forward from Washington last year, I believed at worst, the Mavs had simply exchanged Josh Howard for another with a better contract and a longterm solution at center.

How fast things change. After the first week or so of 2010-2011 campaign people were wondering if DeShawn Stevenson was actually the best player acquired in the trade. It was an honest argument. Brandon Haywood is a shell of his former self (which is really saying something), Butler looked incapable of making layups and Stevenson simply could not miss from deep. When the Mavericks switched gears after the loss to Chicago and ripped off 17 of their last 18, we saw a new Caron. Or at least, I thought.

It looked like Caron had that swagger back. He looked mean and angry on the court. Like any man that wanted to cross him was a fool. He was fitting in on the sidelines and in the locker room. He even put this in JJ Barea's locker. He was a hero.

As I came to write this piece - a eulogy or sorts - for Butler, I was surprised at the stats. Butler is scoring at a worse clip than last year. He's rebounding less. His assists are down. His turnovers are up. I even dug deep into advanced stats, hoping to find something that would prove my eye test right. There wasn't much. His assist and rebounding rates are down, turnover rate up. He's actually shooting worse from 16-23 feet range. Where, oh where, could I find some stats that would back up my claim that Butler was becoming a positive force for Dallas? I found it in something Butler has usually been poor in - three point shooting. Butler was shooting a career high 43 percent from deep, which raised his overall FG% to 45 (higher than last year) and bumped his effective field goal percentage and true shooting percentage up as well.

(Note: eFG% makes three pointers worth more in FG% and TS% is the same except it weights free throws as well)

All in all, I was a little disappointed in my quarry of justifying my first positive thoughts in Caron Butler. I've come to the conclusion and agree with Mr. Dwyer - Caron is merely an average player, fitting into a system that needs an average player at that position.

Regardless, I still feel cheated with Caron's injury. Come to think, just a couple of weeks ago, the Mavericks were riding high. They just defeated Oklahoma City in OKC (no easy task) without Dirk (a really uneasy task). Dirk's injury wasn't serious, and it looked like the Maverick's were world beaters. I was personally at that OKC game (part of my friend's yearly ritual of making it up there for Mavs/Thunder). I remember turning to one of my buddies as we walked back to the hotel room and telling him "Man, this team is different. I can't put my finger on it, but we might do something special this year. I think we're the best in the west."Was I a few beers in? Of course. But it was an honest opinion that other people shared. How fleeting something as being atop the NBA world can be. What's worse was Butler continued to get better. In the seven games before he was injured, Butler averaged just a tick under 20 points per game. That's like Jason Terry but a four inches taller Jason Terry! Regardless of what the stats said, Butler was getting better and contributing to a team that was looking poised to make a deep playoff run. My eye test was making me a *gasp* fan of Caron Butler.

None of this matters anymore. Butler's time in Dallas is officially done. There is little to no chance that the Mavericks resign Butler after his contract expires at the end of the year (assuming he even makes it to the end of the year as a Maverick, which is now very much in doubt). With his time over, many will remember his open-shot-into-contested-shot pump-fakes, his mindless dribbling, his love of the long two pointer and missed layups. I'll remember him for the two-week stretch where the Mavs were world-beaters and Butler seemingly, got it.

(Advanced stats courtesy of Hoopdata.com)

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Cruel and Unusual

Caron Butler grasped his right knee as he held it close to his chest. The pain was obvious. The man known as 'Tuffjuice' looked like someone shot him in the leg. When Butler was able to get up and walk off to the locker room on his own will, he probably fooled a lot of us during the game. Maybe it isn't that bad, maybe he'll come back soon, maybe it's just Dirk all over again.

Judging from the postgame comments in the Mavs ugly loss to the Bucks, Butler might not be around for quite a bit. Combined with the worrisome Shawn Marion injury (his thigh and hammy nagged him quite a bit last year) and Roddy Beaubois' seemingly amputated foot (seriously, he broke his foot in early August. All was said that three months at the latest. It's been four going on five now with absolutely no timetable whatsoever) the Mavs are in serious trouble.

The only light at the end of the tunnel is Dirk's injury is not serious and he is supposed to be back when the Mavs come back to Dallas after today's game with the Cavs. But combined with a three game losing streak, it's obvious that this is the lowest of the low for the Mavericks right now. A team that looked just as poised to beat any other team in this league less than a week ago now looks like it will limp into the playoffs for another first round embarrassment.

Needless to say, this is about as stinko as it gets. Dallas has been free of the injury bug for a majority of the Dirk era, save for a few ankle sprains and broken faces. The only time I can remember injury potentially hurting a Maverick team like this one was when Dirk went down with a brutal sprained knee injury in the 2003 Western Finals against San Antonio. Hope shouldn't be lost just yet, however. Butler still hasn't been diagnosed and Mark Cuban is not one to let his team rot away if the injuries to Marion and Butler due turn out to be incredibly serious. But what to do? With Butler's injury, it will be almost impossible to move him. That leaves Brendan Haywood and JJ Barea or dumping one of the French Towers.

An interesting possibility would be Kevin Martin, the awkward, yet silky smooth (if that makes sense) shooting guard for the Houston Rockets. Being able to package Haywood and JJB to acquire him of course is a pipe dream - one that I've been wishing for since Josh Howard was put on the trading block. Martin looks even more salivating this season, with the 20 plus points and the very interesting record he's on the verge of completing. Would Houston be dumb enough to take on Haywood? I'm not too sure, unless they are that desperate for a center with Yao Ming on the cusp of retirement.

If Butler is done for the year and the Mavericks make no move to replace him, it'd be hard to be excited for the year. A lineup of Kidd, Stevenson, Marion, Dirk and Chandler is all well and good, but that vaunted Dallas depth would be nixed especially is Jason Terry keeps trying to build himself a second mansion with all the bricks he's collected over the last week or so. Don't get me wrong, I've ripped Butler a fair number of times on Twitter and over here. But losing 'Tuffjuice' for the season would be hard to swallow.

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Charles Barkley Likes the Mavs! Hooray!

Charles Barkley isn't the most articulate analyst for the NBA. In fact, if you listened to him talk just normally, you'd wonder why he has a job that requires him to speak to a national audience. But if there's one thing the man knows, it's basketball. Maybe not as in-depth as some other guys and scribes out there, but I feel that of all the former players that have these gigs, Chuck useless his former experiences to the best degree. He's honest, and if he thinks a team sucks he says they suck. He's refreshing in a world where TV heads are more concerned with image and how they are perceived by the public. Well, anyway, here's Chuck talking about the elite teams in the West. The juicy part is at the very end of the video:



Awesome! Dallas is good! Hooray! Celebrate, dance in the streets!

In all seriousness, Charles has always had a love/hate relationship with Dallas. It's been well documented  how Chuck either thinks the Mavs are fantastic or Dirk can't win squat. I think ever since Dirk changed his game to be a more tough-minded scorer in 2005, Chuck has approved. Best team in Texas? That's a bold claim considering the Spurs are one game off the pace of the 72-win Chicago Bulls of 1995-96. Sweet! Keep it up, Chuck.

(Hat tip to Daily Thunder for the link)

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The Emancipation of DeShawn Stevenson

When the Mavericks shipped away Josh Howard before the All-Star game in Dallas earlier this year, the prized packages of the deal were of course Caron Butler and Brendan Haywood. Unfortunately, to many NBA scribes, Dallas had to take on DeShawn Stevenson and his fat contract, considering his usage. Stevenson hauled in over $3.8 million last year and exercised his player option for $4.15 million for this year. Sounds like a lot for someone who could barely score three points per game last year.

Fast forward to this year - Dallas is looking nothing special with a 3-2 start after a puzzling loss to Memphis and getting blitzed by Denver. From what we now know, Dirk Nowitzki and Jason Terry went to Rick Carlisle and pleaded for them to insert DeShawn Stevenson into the lineup. Weird, considering Terry was enjoying a good start shooting wise, and was the starter. But the team realized that the bench was lacking. Terry accepted his role as the sixth man once again and Stevenson was put into the lineup.

Great, now what?

How about a 50% 3PT percentage. Which is higher than his overall percentage of 48. Pretty shocking considering Stevenson's last three seasons shooting the three were horrendous: 32%, 17% and 27% respectively. This is all well and good, with the theory that Stevenson is now giving the starting lineup a little more of a defensive edge without losing the shooting pop from Terry. But I wanted to dig a little deeper. Like it is in baseball, defense is the hardest thing to classify with statistics in the NBA. All the NBA really has are the defensive stats of rebounds, steals, blocks and defensive rating. For me, I wanted to dig a bit because really, the eye test wasn't really passing Stevenson on the defensive level. I didn't think he was awful, but he did have a propensity of letting his man drive past him - only to be erased by the beauty that is Tyson Chandler.

In the digging I discovered the Stevenson's defensive rating is 107, which is actually three higher than Jason Terry's 104. I think this is more of Terry's improvement, as it's the lowest number Terry has posted in his career. Now, defensive rating isn't the be-all, end-all number. After all, Zydrunas Ilgauskas is fourth in the league in defensive rating and I’m pretty sure your little brother could spin him in a circle. It is a fair argument though, as I’ve wondered if Stevenson should be allotted more minutes.

I think the fairest way to look at the question is this: Stevenson’s biggest value to the team is hitting spot up three pointers while holding water until Terry enters the game midway through the first quarter. In games such as Wednesday against Portland, what good is Stevenson if he is 0-for-4 on threes? Especially since as mentioned above, his defense isn’t even significantly better than Jason Terry’s.

I think Dallas fans have to just be happy with what Stevenson is giving them in short bursts. Stevenson’s niche on the team is the type that can wear out if played too long. So, rule of thumb: if DeShawn is knocking down threes and doing this, upwards of five times a game (like he was against Utah last week) let him pay 20+ minutes, which he did with 21. If not? Keep Jason Terry in, wait for Roddy B and the Mavericks suddenly have a depth problem (the good kind) at the guard spot.

((Advanced stats courtesy of Hoopdata.com)

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The Next Evolution?

If there is one thing that Dirk Nowitzki has never been given enough credit for, it's how he's changed his game throughout his entire career. Entering the league as a skinny, shy teen with a beautiful jumper, Dirk learned the hard way about the physical and athletic nature of the NBA and how it is unmatched in any other form of basketball around the world.

He adjusted. He learned the NBA style, the pacing and realized he needed to spend hours and hours in the gym to condition and tweak holes. Paired with Don Nelson, Dirk flourished and truly "arrived" in the 2002-2003, in which he averaged 25.1 points, 9.9 rebounds (can we just changed that to 10?), a then career high of three assists and led the Mavs to the brink of the NBA finals, falling to Steve Ke...err the San Antonio Spurs in the Western Finals after he injured his knee and sat out the last two games.

But the game once again caught up to Dirk. Realizing that Dirk is mainly a jump shooter who likes to launch threes and mid-range jumpers from the high post, coaches started throwing wicked double teams and smaller athletic defenders who could keep up with Dirk's subpar handling and stay in front of him and still contest his jumper. Now, Dirk never experienced a "lull" because of this, because he is so good. In fact he's never shot under 45% from the field except his rookie season. But people watching could sense that people might be starting to figure out ways to at least manage Dirk and not let him dominate a game.

When Avery Johnson took over for the last 16 games in 2005, he knew Dirk could be even better. It helps that Dirk knew too. It was a radical transformation that not only Dirk pursued, but thrived in. Dirk utilized his best assets more efficiently: Less threes, more back to the basket and more free throws. In 2003-2004, Dirk averaged 5.5 free throw attempts per game. In 2005, he sky-rocketed to 9.1. He averaged one less three per game (a trend that continued till now.) Dirk had turned into everything people thought he wasn't: A tough-minded scorer that doesn't just rely on a jump shot to beat you. The culmination of this change is displayed in this beautiful, epic play during the Mavericks most magical season: The and-one to tie Game 7 against the Spurs in the 2006 playoffs.

Since then, Dirk has been at his usual pace: about 25 points, 8-9 rebounds and ridiculous shooting percentages (including the ultra rare 50 FG%-40 3PT%-90 FT% in 2007). The rebounding is declining, but that's a topic for another post. What I'm talking about with what is happening to Dirk this season could be another evolution of his game.

Dirk is 32. In NBA years, that's getting up there. Add in all the playoff games and international basketball and Dirk's body has taken a beating. Maybe that's why Dirk is averaging only 5.8 free throws per game, his lowest since 2004. Oddly enough, Dirk is technically taking less mid-range shots (16-23 feet) than last season (83. to 7.7) but remember, he's taking one less shot per game so the percentages differ. What's most interesting is that Dirk's mid-range shots are being assisted on a whopping 83.5% of the time. Overall, 65.1% of his shots are being assisted, a career high. If you watch how Dallas is running its offense this year, Dirk is now coming off screens at a higher rate, almost looking like a 7-foot Ray Allen. Dirk is being run off the baseline (thanks to Tyson Chandler screens) and is catching and shooting almost immediately, taking away much of the iso-heavy driven offense that we've been accustomed to seeing over the last five years.

It's an interesting wrinkle and Dirk is responding with ridiculous numbers, shooting over 55% from the field and 40% from three. I can't help but wonder if Dirk is utilizing the catch-and-shoot more for a couple of reasons: 1.) Tyson Chandler gets more involved in the offense, able to slip picks and be open for dunks/alley oops when teams close hard on Dirk's catch and 2.) Maybe Dirk is saving his body for the playoffs. After all, in last night's win versus Portland, we saw the Dirk we were accustomed to seeing in the last minutes of the game: Give him the ball, and get the hell out of the way and he'll score, come hell or high water.

(Advanced stats courtesy of Hoopdata.com)

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The Mavericks are Amazing...And in Second Place

Oh, poor Mavericks. You've changed a lot. You've turned around your defense to make it one of the best in the league. Tyson Chandler is a candidate for both defensive player of the year and most improved player. Too bad non-locked in NBA fans and fair-weather Maverick fans aren't buying in.

What are the reasons? They're numerous. For starters, how can a team drastically change this much with the changes of Tyson Chandler and DeShawn Stevenson when Brendan Haywood has regressed? But a big reason? The Spurs. Yep. Still good. Really good.

So any non-believer can just say "blah blah blah, the Spurs are better." It's hard to sway fans and doubters that only look at the standings and see "1. San Antonio: 20-3, 2. Dallas: 19-4" even though the Mavericks handled the Spurs in San Antonio earlier in the 12-game win streak. But the Spurs are playing some pretty efficient basketball.

They're second in the NBA in offensive rating and eighth in defensive rating. And, try this on for size: The Spurs are 11 places above the Mavericks in pace. Yes, the Spurs play a faster pace than the Mavericks. The Tim Duncan, half-court, defensive oriented Spurs play faster than the run-and-gun, trigger-happy, Nellyball Mavericks. I understand philosophies have changed for both teams, it's just awkward to see.

I think what concerns me most about the Spurs is they're playing exactly how I thought they'd play...last year. The addition of Richard Jefferson, I thought, would lead the Spurs to an NBA title last year. It really was their missing piece, as the Spurs desperately needed a fourth scorer since Manu, Parker and Duncan all get banged up with injuries during the regular season. What I thought would make them unstoppable is all four playing well and healthy. And this year is proving the case.

After being abysmal last year, Jefferson is shooting 46% from three and averaging 14.3 points per game. He's feasting off the corner three, getting good looks from Manu and Parker's penetration and Duncan's double teams. Manu is averaging a little over 20 a game and is probably having his best and most efficient season ever. What's nuts is Duncan isn't averaging a double-double for the first time since 1954. Every year we say this is the year he's declining, but it's proven that he takes it easy during the regular season save for the big games, then kicks it up a notch in the playoffs.

All that said, the Mavericks kicked their ass in San Antonio. Just jump the Spurs in the standings, and the lukewarm fans will come flooding in.

(Sorry, had to homer up the end of that post realizing I just wrote an entire post about the San Antonio
Spurs)

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